Bankruptcy Fears Stoked coal, but China is a greater risk | Top iPad ...

updated to include additional comments from the analysts, sector-data ??i>

NEW YORK (TheStreet) ? A coal giant lag in the second half of the year, there is still the chance that things could get worse for the industry. However, a weak sales forecast and debt-laden balance sheets do not prove to be the death knell for an industry whose problems were highlighted in the recent Patriot Coal (PCX ) bankruptcy. ?I think the second half of the year will not be one heck of a lot better than in the first half,? said Davenport & Co. analyst Christopher Haberlin of his outlook for the coal industry. However, the reasons for the shift Vorsicht.Statt an existential crisis, head of coal players in the second quarter, the result of a reversal of the potential demand indicators. Met coal, which is the primary source of health for the coal company in the first half of the year was due to the demand in Asia, especially China, who uses the product coke plant to produce steel, is in danger of being negligent. Thermal coal, mainly in power generation used in early 2012 as natural gas hit decade low prices slumped, but a recovery in prices for natural gas amid a late June and July heat wave has driven prices above $ 3, so that coal is an economical alternative for utilities in some M?rkten.In Indeed, as investors brace for a shift in outlook which is coal, the greater the risk meets the industry and the prospect of stronger economy for thermal coal signal an upside opportunity, there can be little reason to beaten by the shares of Peabody its energy (BTU ) , Cloud Peak Energy (CLD ) and Teck Resources (TCK ) , outperformed their peers, including Alpha Natural Resources have span (ANR ) and Arch Coal (TCK ) . (In 2012, coal outperformance of 25% or less drop, compared with 50%-plus declines for many industry leaders.) The likes of Peabody Energy and Cloud Peak, may continue to outperform due to its operational efficiency and exposure to more economic coal basin , is Haberlin.Insolvenzrisiko did not leave the coal country. After Patriot Coal recent bankruptcy, raises Haberlin James River (JRCC ) as perhaps the most at-risk companies in the industry because of its high cost structure. But the company also has nearly $ 200 million in cash and thermal coal contracts until 2013, the production costs can outreturn. ?Apart from JRCC, the remaining firms remain in our coverage universe does not face significant risks bankruptcy over the next few quarters,? said Haberlin in a note to Kunden.Die prospect of a slowdown in growth in China, and lower steel demand removal of the largest buyers of marginal coal Haberlin has met more affected. Haeberlin and other coal-analysts recently cut earnings forecasts for the entire sector. However, investors can still focus on work, whether companies met coal instructions -. If the earnings fall faster than expected ?Into Profit estimates are met, we think too generous for more focused and Alpha Natural Resources and Energy, Walter too hard for Consol Energy (CNX ) , given its higher profit restarting the low-vol met coal production in Buchanan, ?Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Timna Tanners wrote in a July 17 earnings outlook.? met Despite the short-term concerns, we remain convinced that the market remains robust in the long term, given the limited supply globally and high production costs, costs, ?said Gerber.
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